98th Academy Awards - 2025 Oscar Predictions Post
/98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
It is that time of year again when the good narcissists of Hollywood gather round to pucker up and kiss some ass and break their arms patting themselves on the back…IT’S OSCAR TIME!!
Everyone knows that the Oscars are the most important, most profound, and most holy of events in the human calendar. God created the earth in six days and on the seventh day he watched the Oscars…and was flabbergasted that a pedestrian piece of shit CODA won Best Picture a few years ago.
Speaking of pedestrian, don’t believe the hype regarding 2025. This past year has been a rather mundane movie year…there were a handful of movies I liked but none of them rose to the level of being called “great”. That hasn’t stopped the ever-growing collection of sycophants and shitheads who have declared the relentlessly sub-par One Battle After Another and Sinners to be cinematic masterpieces. Yawn.
The Oscars have diminished greatly in the 21st Century, and its loss of cultural cache has been hard-earned. The film industry has forgotten how to make great movies and that is a function of poor leadership and decision-making at the studio level, and artistic atrophy at the filmmaking level.
Movie stars are a relic of the past…and influencers are the medium of the moment…Timothee Chalamet seems to be a little bit of both and not enough of either.
As for the awards come Sunday…well…I have not lost an Oscar pool since I’ve been swimming in them…so if you want to be a big hit at the Oscar party you no doubt will not be attending because no one has Oscar parties anymore because no one cares about the Oscars…then you’ve come to the right place.
In all honestly…I would not put money on my Oscar picks this year. I have struggled to figure out what the hell the Academy has been doing in recent years and all the usual Academy tells seem to be getting turned on their heads. Will that stop me from boastfully declaring my picks while acting like I know what I’m talking about? No, of course not.
Thankfully the world is deeply enmeshed in a plethora of peace and prosperity and no pedophile cult of Satanic elites is running roughshod over the world and no war where innocents and schoolgirls are callously slaughtered rages anywhere – especially not in the Middle East…so since everything is calm and cool and safe and peaceful so we can all focus on what really matters the most…THE ACADEMY AWARDS!!
So…let’s get to it!!
This year it is an all-out battle between One Battle After Another and Sinners. Sinners has a record 16 nominations, and OBAA has won all the precursor awards. I disliked both movies so I have no dog in this fight…and would be happy to see either of them lose. There should be some indications early on which movie will win big on Oscar Night…and the first two awards will be pretty important.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgard – Sentimental Value
Who will win: DELROY LINDO - SINNERS
Who should win: I guess Jacob Elordi?
Indicator win: Sean Penn – OBAA big night/Delroy Lindo – Sinners big night
Ok…this is a really tough one…Sean Penn has won a bunch of pre-cursors…but Delroy Lindo has all the momentum somehow and is the pandering choice. My guess is…pandering wins. Lindo is a fine enough actor but he does nothing even remotely interesting in the over-rated Sinners. If I am being honest the only performance that I thought was good in this group was Jacob Elordi. (I have not seen Sentimental Value – and Skarsgaard could definitely win). If Lindo wins then Sinners is going to have a HUGE night!!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Teyana Taylor – OBAA
Who will win: AMY MADIGAN - WEAPONS
Who should win: Amy Madigan (Note that I’ve not seen Sentimental Value)
Indicator win: Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners huge night/ Teyana Taylor – OBAA huge night.
Teyana Taylor was the leader for a long time but her momentum seems to have diminished…and now it appears to be a race between Amy Madigan and Wunmi Mosaku. I really like Wunmi Mosaku…but she does nothing of note in Sinners…and if she wins here, it is completely a pandering pick. Madigan on the other hand has two things going for her – this is essentially a lifetime achievement Oscar, and also…she is very good in the role. So, I am going with Madigan but will not be the least bit surprised if Mosaku wins – and if she does it is an indication that Sinners is going to have a BIG night.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Will win: SINNERS – RYAN COOGLER
Should win: It Was Just an Accident
Indicator win: If Sinners loses then this night is turned upside down…would be genuinely shocking.
Sinners is winning this…end of story. The script and the film is garbage….but it’ll win.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
OBAA
Train Dreams
Will win: One Battle After Another – PT ANDERSON - OBAA
Should win: Train Dreams
Indicator win: If OBAA loses this award this will be a major shock and turn the night on its head.
This could be much tighter than people expect…but I do think One Battle After Another pulls it off…but don’t be surprised if Frankenstein or Hamnet sneaks in for the win.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Arco
Elio
KPOP Demon Hunters
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Will win: K-POP DEMON HUNTERS
Should win: I’ve not seen any of these movies.
KPOP Demon Hunters is a phenomenon and it’ll win here. If it doesn’t then I assume that Zootopia 2 will win.
BEST INTERNATRIONAL FEATURE
It Was Just an Accident (France)
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sirat (Spain)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
Will win: SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Should win: It Was Just an Accident
This may be the very best category of the night. It Was Just an Accident and The Secret Agent are the only two films I’ve seen and they are definitely deserving of the award…and word is that Sentimental Value and The Voice of Hind Rajab are as well. My pick is Sentimental Value only because director Joachim Trier is also nominated for Best Director and it got two acting nominations as well which would indicate the film has deep support. Another thing to keep in mind is that The Secret Agent is a Brazilian film and Brazil has a very powerful contingent in the Academy….so don’t be shocked if it wins.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
Will win: THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR
Should win: I’ve not seen any of these
The Perfect Neighbor deals with race and that is usually a ticket to Oscar gold. Wouldn’t be a shock if Mr. Nobody Against Putin wins because anti-Russia stuff is always a big favorite.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
All Empty Rooms
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
The Devil is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness
Will win: ALL THE EMPTY ROOMS
Should win: I’ve not seen any of these
All the Empty Rooms is about children and gun violence. Check!
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Butcher’s Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva
Will win: TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA
Should win: I have not seen any of these.
Two People Exchanging Saliva is the favorite but Butcher’s Stain has a shot to win…but it might on the “wrong” side of the Israel-Palestine divide to get Oscar gold.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters
Will win: BUTTERFLY
Should win: I’ve not seen these.
Your guess is as good as mine…but Butterfly looks good…and it’s a Holocaust movie – so it’s a shoe in.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
OBAA
Sinners
Will win: SINNERS
Should win: No one
Indicator win: If OBAA wins it’s a big deal and will portend a big night…if Sinners wins as expected – it will be part of a Sinners juggernaut
I think this is a very important category as it will indicate how the evening will go…if OBAA wins giving Johnny Greenwood a “make-up” Oscar then OBAA will dominate…if Sinners wins…big night for Sinners. I have Sinners winning.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Dear Me” – Relentless
“Golden” – KPOP Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You” – Sinners
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” – Viva Verdi!
“Train Dreams” – Train Dreams
Will win: K-POP DEMON HUNTERS
Should win: No idea.
I think that KPOP Demon Hunters wins but if Sinners wins this award – a distinct possibility, then the juggernaut is in full swing and the film will win a record number of awards.
BEST CASTING
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
OBAA
The Secret Agent
Sinners
Will win: SINNERS
Should win: The Secret Agent
Indicator win: If Sinners loses this it will be a big deal and portend a lesser night.
Sinners will win for some reason.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
F1
Jurassic World: Rebirth
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Sinners
The Lost Bus
Will win: AVATAR FIRE AND ASH
Should win: F1
Indicator win: If Sinners wins this award – look out!!
No one gives a shit about Avatar movies but they always seem to win technical Oscars like this one…and I think that trend continues. If Sinners wins this then the universe might collapse in on itself as it is going to win the most Oscars of any movie ever made…quite an accomplishment for a shitty movie!
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Frankenstein
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Kokuho
Will win: FRANKENSTEIN
Should win: The Smashing Machine
Indicator win: Sinners.
I think The Smashing Machine, which is a terrible movie, should actually win…but it won’t. So, it comes down to Frankenstein and Sinners…just like in Production Design…and I think the outcome is the same…Frankenstein.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Sinners
Will win: SINNERS
Should win: Frankenstein
Indicator win: Frankenstein – if it wins a handful of awards, it will blunt Sinners’ momentum.
Once again it is Frankenstein vs Sinners and once again Sinners racks up the victory as the juggernaut continues…it should be noted that if Frankenstein wins this, Hair and Makeup and Production Design…my prediction of Sinners dominance is down the toilet and OBAA is the movie that will be the juggernaut.
FILM EDITING
F1
Marty Supreme
OBAA
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Will win: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Should win: One Battle After Another
Indicator win: If Sinners wins then the night is over and we can all go home.
F1 is getting some buzz for this…but the real battle is between OBAA and Sinners…and this is a big one…but this time I think OBAA gets the win…but if Sinners wins this one…LOOK OUT!!
BEST SOUND
F1
Frankenstein
OBAA
Sinners
Sirat
Will win: F1
Should win: OBAA
Indicator win: This is a neat little category that if either Sinners or OBAA win will let us know which movie will have a big night.
I think F1 will win…cars make cool sounds…BUT…this is another category that might go to Sinners just because it is pandering time. My pick though is F1.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
OBAA
Sinners
Will win: FRANKENSTEIN
Should win: Not sure.
Indicator win: Sinners. If it wins here and in Hair and Makeup and in costume…a real possibility…then Sinners is an all-time juggernaut.
Frankenstein is the favorite and could very well win…but Sinners is the potential juggernaut…and this is the type of award a juggernaut might win.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frankenstein
Sinners
OBAA
Train Dreams
Marty Supreme
Will win: SINNERS
Should win: Train Dreams
Indicator win: OBAA should win this as cinematographer Michael Bauman has won all the pre-cursors…so if Sinners wins it is an upset and means Sinners is having a huge night.
Sinners is winning this despite looking like shit. It will win because its cinematographer, Autumn Durald Arkapaw, is not only a woman but a woman of color and no woman of any color or any non-color has ever won this award. Signal of virtue achieved!!
BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio – OBAA
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Will win: MICHAEL B. JORDAN - SINNERS
Should win: Ethan Hawke/Leonardo DiCaprio/Wagner Moura…even Little Timmee when measured against Michael B. Jordan.
This is a very tough category…little Timmee had momentum and that seems to have gone up in smoke. Leo never had any momentum at all for some reason…and Hawke and Moura, who both gave great performances, were never taken seriously it seems. So, it would seem that Michael B. Jordan – who has proven himself over the years and in Sinners in particular, to be a truly dreadful and awful actor, will win Best Actor…and we will have to pretend he is worthy. Michael B. Jordan is easily the very worst actor in this group and gives the worst performance. I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Emma Stone – Bugonia
Will win: JESSIE BUCKLEY – HAMNET
Should win: Jessie Buckley/Rose Byrne/Emma Stone
Jessie Buckley is winning this thing and she definitely deserves it. I would also argue that Rose Byrne is most definitely deserving of the award as well…and I would be happy if either of them wins. One can only hope that Kate Hudson is happy to be there because she is not deserving of being there and should go away as quickly as possible.
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao – Hamnet
PT Anderson – One Battle After Another*
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Will win: PT ANDERSON – OBAA
Should win: No idea…not a fan of any of these films – but have not seen Sentimental Value
There’s a chance Coogler gets the victory here but I think this is a lifetime achievement Oscar for PT Anderson. The funniest part will be if PTA wins Best Director and Sinners wins Best Picture the usual suspects will still be crying racism because Coogler didn’t get Best Director…either way I will laugh heartily.
BEST PICTURE
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Will win: SINNERS
Should win: Train Dreams/Bugonia
I know the odds-on favorite is One Battle After Another…but the vibes I’m getting are that Sinners is going to have an enormous Oscar night. I think the movie is a steaming pile of pedestrian horseshit…but I also think it will win Best Picture because it gives the Academy a chance to pander and virtue signal – their favorite thing to do! Maybe I’m wrong…and don’t get me wrong…I have no love for One Battle After Another either…but it could win…or we could get a reverse split and have Coogler win Best Director and OBAA win Best Picture…or Sinners could win both or OBAA could win both. It is going to a big fight between these two movies all night and from what I’m gathering it looks like Sinners will be the big winner. We can all rest assured though that no matter how many Oscars Sinners wins…and I think it will win a lot…it won’t be enough and people will be crying “racism!” in the wake of the Oscars…so at least we have that to look forward to.
Well…that wraps up the Oscar predictions for this year…but my predictions for next year are essentially the same…there will be a cornucopia of underwhelming movies everyone pretends is great and I will once again want to light myself on fire. YAY!!!
Alright everybody….I’ll see you at the after party!!
©2026